Tropical Storm Rafael to become a hurricane before Cuba landfall Wednesday

### Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast to Strengthen into Hurricane

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Wednesday, impacting the western Caribbean and southern Florida with destructive winds and heavy rainfall. Located about 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 295 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, the storm could bring damaging winds, dangerous storm surges, and torrential rainfall to Jamaica and Grand Cayman starting Tuesday, and western Cuba by Wednesday. The impact might extend to parts of the Florida Keys starting Wednesday evening.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Isle of Youth, several Cuban provinces, and the Grand Cayman Islands. Hurricane-force winds may affect the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and western Cuba by Wednesday. Tropical storm watch alerts are in place for the Florida Keys, with the possibility of gusty winds and 1-3 inches of rainfall in these regions.

There is uncertainty regarding the impact on the northern Gulf Coast, with residents advised to remain updated. Heavy rain is forecasted through midweek, raising the risk of flooding and landslides in Jamaica, Cuba, and spreading into Florida and the Southeast later in the week. The storm's trajectory may shift, influencing flood risks across Florida and the Southeast.

The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila are under tropical storm warnings, having been upgraded from warnings. Jamaica also remains under a tropical storm warning. Rafael is predicted to undergo "steady to rapid intensification" near the Cayman Islands and Cuba, potentially reaching a high-end Category 1 hurricane by the time it lands in Cuba on Wednesday.

The storm has already brought heavy rainfall to Jamaica, with forecasts indicating 3 to 6 inches of rain expected for western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, while some areas in Jamaica and Cuba might experience up to 9 inches. This could result in flash flooding and mudslides, especially in Jamaica's mountainous regions. Showers and thunderstorms are impacting several Jamaican parishes, with strong winds affecting southern parts.

As a precaution, all Jamaican schools are closed for in-person classes. Varying predictions exist regarding Rafael's path, with models suggesting either a northwest move toward the US or a leftward turn in the Gulf, possibly weakening the storm. Despite five hurricanes hitting the US Gulf Coast this year, Rafael's impact may be less severe due to geographic and meteorological factors.

Rafael also promises rough seas and substantial storm surges, with inundation of up to 3 feet expected in the Cayman Islands and up to 9 feet in western Cuba above normal tide levels.