JPM Calculates The Price Of Oil Needed To Plug The Global Supply Shortfall Gap Through 2030

JPM has calculated the "long-term Incentive price" which is determined by the required Brent oil price of the project that pushes cumulative production above the 4.3 mbd threshold required to fill the…

Natasha Kaneva is JPMorgan’s chief commodity strategist. She published this morning a long and important note.

Pro subs at the usual place

The "bridge" between oil prices and supply is needed to plug the 4 million barrels shortfall in 2030.

She finds that the first year in which efficiency policies implemented more than a decade earlier became visible was 2022. She admits to not being a secular oil bear like some others.

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Peak oil demand is on the horizon. The JPM analyst calculates that in a note entitled "Long Term Inventive Price",

Global oil demand will reach 106.9 million barrels per day in 2030. This is up by 7.1 million barrels compared to 2022 levels

As demand for traditional oil products such as gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil is increasingly driven by air travel and petrochemicals.

The following is an excerpt from "


The shift from road fuels and petrochemicals is chronicled in the " section: